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Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?
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The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.
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Thousands of jobs available at tribal casinos
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With millions of Americans out of work, the first sign of a recovery has to be in new jobs coming on the market. The tribal gaming industry is doing its part, with several operators posting new jobs in the past few weeks.Seneca Gaming Corporation has lots of jobs available at the Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino in Niagara Falls and Seneca Buffalo Creek Casino in downtown Buffalo. The operator will be hosting a job fair for open positions on February 25 between 10:00am and 6:00pm.“Even with the changes and challenges everyone has gone through over the past year, Seneca Gaming Corporation has remained one of the largest employers in Western New York, and we are excited to be growing our team across a variety of departments,” said Meghan Smith, Seneca Gaming Corporation’s vice president of human resources. “We truly believe that the time we spend at work should be rewarding, fulfilling and fun. That’s how we approach our jobs every day. If people are looking an opportunity in that type of environment, we are ready to talk to them.”Attendees can check out what’s on offer in person or virtually, but should be ready for an interview at a moment’s notice.On the other side of the country, the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians are also on the look out for fresh talent. That operator has more than 500 jobs to fill, with as many as 2000 coming for the rest of the year. They’ll be having their virtual career fair on February 18 from 9:00am to 4:00pm.“The expansion of San Manuel will offer an economic boost to the local job market at a time when it is really needed,” said Brigitte Saria, Chief People and Infrastructure Officer. “Our efforts to boost the local economy are guided by our commitment to ensuring our employment process and work environment follow leading health and safety standards.”The Chukchansi Gold Resort and Casino in Coarsegold, California are also hiring. The tribe is looking for 50 full-time and part-time positions, and will have a job fair on February 23 from 10:00am to 1:00pm.Add those jobs to the 150 that Oneida Nation Enterprises were offering as of last week, and there’s a lot to be hopeful for about the future of the economy, and particularly that of tribal gaming.Connecticut tribes close to new dealGovernor Ned Lamont wants sports betting in his state, and he needs a new deal with the tribes to get it done. He used his budget address to emphasize the push:“My administration has been in active negotiations with our tribal partners to bring the state’s gaming economy into the digital age. And I am submitting legislation which reflects what I believe to be the best bet in ending this stalemate of inaction in a way which is in the best interest [of] the entire state.”Construction resumes at Four WindsThe Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians’ contractor recently resumed building a hotel at Four Winds South Bend Casino. Construction slowed down significantly due to Covid-19.The new 23-story hotel was originally due to be completed this year. But with construction crews only working on the foundation now after a 10-month delay, maybe 2022 seems more accurate.
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My Confession: Male, Age 21 (AUSTRALIA)
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Let me give you some valuable background info first: I live at home with my Dad & my girlfriend (she’s between houses). They’re both my best friends. I am currently going through a chronic pain type disorder that appeared in both wrists & forearms since July 2020. In & out of appointments/checks every fortnight. I am unable to do much in my day, it hurts to do normal things in my day - so I am unable to work or study anymore. Painkillers are not helping. Thursday was the day, the day I basically lost my entire life savings. Since then, I’ve been using every single dollar I can get my hands on to recover this loss & I’m sure you know where I’m at now. $8 in debt & unemployed with no income. But how did I get here? I got caught gambling when I was 17/18, lost all my money then too but it was less than $1000 (my Dad was the only one who knew). Since then, I vowed to never gamble again & I didn’t until 2 weeks ago. My Dad & I were watching the cricket & he placed a $100 multi (he rarely gambles) & won $450. We both thought this was great so I put in $50 myself for the next game. I ended up losing $25 & won it back in the darts later on. I then decided to move on & not do any more as my girlfriend of 2 years (the one I’ll marry) did not approve of me gambling again. So I stopped - until my Dad persuaded me to lie & just gamble anyway behind her back. It was innocent losses, $5-$10 here & there for the next 2 weeks. It wasn’t until last week, the day after my girlfriend’s birthday, that everything went downhill. She had to work Wed & Thu which left me to be alone for 2 days. I was very down in the dumps & just felt like I had all this money & didn’t use it (which is the stupidest thing ever, I know). So I started gambling on the races. With high $1000 bets & spent hours & hours, got up $10k then back down to $5k before I bet my whole bank to get back where I started at $15k. I stopped, went in my room & realised what I did, I almost lost my ENTIRE bank. Did I stop there? Nope, you guessed it. Eventually, one thing led to another & now I’m $15k down & $9 in debt. I confessed everything to my girlfriend & Dad on Thursday. Which they were both very supportive. I had $2000 in my bank then & said I’d stop. But I didn’t, Iost $1500 yesterday & $500 today. So yes in $9 debt. Although I do not have an addiction (oddly enough I studied psychology for 2 years before this chronic pain stopped me), I have definitely fallen into the trap of gambling once again & I only risked losing my last $2000 to not win the money back, but rather I looked at it as an outlet to make money so I can provide my girlfriend & I with a future. But this was such a bad mindset to approach everything. $9 in debt. I am stopping here. I vow to, right here, right now. I have not told my girlfriend or Dad about the last $2000, but I think I will hang onto this one for now as I can make that back in selling some of my collectables that have been collecting profit over the years. So thank god for that at least. Additionally, I may receive a pension for my condition so if that’s approved, must lock my money away. I had to get all this out & it has put me in an awful lot of PHYSICAL pain to even write this due to my chronic pain condition. I don’t expect anyone to read this all as this is rather for me. Thank you. C. submitted by /u/codesfrost [comments]
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Super Bowl Streaker Bet $50,000 on Himself but Bovada Won’t Pay Out
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09:1116 FebOnline sportsbook Bovada likely won’t be paying out the largest supposedly winning wager on whether a streaker would disrupt the Super Bowl LV game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the site discovered the streaker was part of a group having placed a large bet on such an event occurring during the game.Yuri Andrade, the 31-year-old Florida man who briefly disrupted the game with his run in a pink leotard and black shorts, announced in an apperance on a Florida radio station Wild 94.1 talk show that he was part of a group that had bet $50,000 that a streaker would appear. Andrade told the show’s audience that his group had locked in the bet at +750, resulting in the high would-be payout.However, Bovada, a grey-market betting site offering services to many US states, quickly learned of Andrade’s admission. The site had already been aware of “suspicious activity” on the prop line, likely the overly large $50,000 wager. As a result, Bovada has already announced it will refund the wagers of all “no” bettors, while also screening for legitimacy all “yes” wagers made before officially grading them.The episode will likely do no publicity favors for Bovada, however, despite the site’s willingness to take a moderate financial hit. Bovada’s lines appear prominently throughout the US’s sports-betting world, on broadcasts and in live and online publications, and as a consequence the site remains under considerable pressure from the US’s growing licensed and regulated markets. At the very least, the event is likely to make Bovada reconsider offering prop bets of this nature, ones that have the potential to disrupt larger sporting events.“Our players have always trusted us to ensure the integrity of all props offered in our sportsbook,”Bovada stated. “We will continue to make sure that any publicity stunts or ill-intended behavior cannot adversely affect the outcome of a player’s wager.”It’s not the first time that streaking has figured into an online gambling story. Nearly 20 years ago, online casino site GoldenPalace.com garnered publicity by investing in all sorts of bizarre activities, including sponsoring serial streaker Mark Roberts’ dashes at events including Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2004. Roberts sported a temporary GoldenPalace.com tattoo during his runs, which were just a small part of the site’s bizarre guerilla marketing campaigns.Did you like this article?Tweet +0
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Wsop app
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Hey guys I’m kinda new to poker so I’m still learning a lot every day. The wsop app made it easy to practice so I had fun. The first couple days I had the app, every night I was on a tear, I was getting power hand after powerhand. Straights to flushes and even once a straight flush. I still haven’t gotten a four of a kind or higher yet. My thing is after a few days I started to have a much harder time, I would have a straight after flop and get beaten by a flush from off the river. I understand with time and experience I can better read and predict that flush but after the last two days I’ve started to enjoy the app less and less. It was fun when everyone at the table had similar money, now even when I’m on lower tables it’s just filthy rich players who reraise almost anything starting from the flop all the way to the river. Sure poker is about bullying your opponents at times but it gets ridiculous when people have to fold pre flop even with solid high hards in fear I won’t even make a pair, just to find out I would’ve had a monster had I waited. Maybe I need to practice more or watch more videos to get the fundamentals (any recommendations would be appreciated). But the last two days have been the biggest beats I’ve ever had and it’s discouraging me from continuing to use the app. Sure the game is about skill and luck but it starts to piss me off when over the past two days I’ve gotten beaten on every power hand. I have a bicycle? Someone has high end straight or flush draw. Have 3 of a kind? Someone has four. Even when I had a fullhouse I would get beat. Maybe I need to watch a video on being able to better decipher the board to know when I have the nuts but I can’t find any handy videos. I know it sounds like a whole lotta complaining but it isn’t like it was multiple people beating me, it’s always the filthy rich player who just happens to get lucky off a river or flip card. And said person will continue to get hand after hand bullying the whole table. Sure it’s a online app it can’t be perfect randomization but at what point does this app become ludicrous? Like really what are the chances the same player will have the best high card or a straight flush or higher 6/10 hands or greater? Hell even when I’ve played my best I thought it was suspect, I was getting hand after hand of amazing sets but now it’s almost like I never win unless someone bluffed and I saw it or I use strategy to get others to think I have the better card. That being said I have made bad calls so not all of my loses can’t be deflected but someone of them feel almost rigged as if the game is favoring certain players on the table. I typically play smart and only make small calls and fold on high bets if I don’t have a solid set or at least a potential flush or straight going for me. Hell I’ve even noticed I play better in tournaments where people play a little bit more realistic And I’m more cautious of the sets I bet on but when it comes to outside of the tournament it seems like this game is just a troll, like it wants to piss me off on purpose. Maybe other users of the app have experienced more fair game play but for the past two days I’ve gotten bullied and it only makes me more mad when the rich guy bluffed and I would’ve had a 3 of a kind or four of a kind but I decided to not go all in on some random cards with no flush or straight potential, such as a 2 and a 9 off suite or pocket 3s. Feel free to roast me if I’m sounding stupid, but from my perspective this app is ridiculous at times.
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In First Hint of WSOP 2021 Revival, WSOP Launches “Ultimate Poker Champion” Sweepstakes Promo
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In what is thought to be the first sign that Caesars is planning for a live World Series of Poker festival in 2021, the operator has put on a new free-to-enter sweepstakes promotion, the Ultimate Poker Champion Experience. Running from February 15 through April 30, 2021, the contest offers anyone in the United States a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be a part of the WSOP Main Event. One lucky person will not only get their entry into the Main Event paid in full, but they will also be treated to an elite experience during their stay. To enter, all you have to do is fill out the form. With the coronavirus pandemic still causing mass disruption to live events and travel in the United States and around the world, the WSOP has yet to announce any schedule or plan for this year’s series. There is no information around the main event, for which the promotion is centered around. The Normal Ramp Up to the WSOP The WSOP is poker’s biggest event of the year. Tens of thousands of players descend on the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas for more than six weeks of poker. Action culminates in the $10,000 Main Event, the most prestigious tournament in the game. The winner is crowned the year’s champion, poker’s highest accolade. However, last year, due to the coronavirus, the regular World Series of Poker 2020 was canceled for the first time in its 51-year history. In its place was an online series held half in the United States—on the official WSOP Nevada and WSOP NJ online poker rooms—and half outside the US on global online poker room GGPoker. WSOP.com USA: The world’s most recognizable poker brand is legal and regulated in Nevada and New Jersey!Massive Value100% deposit bonus up to $1000 + freeroll tickets.The only online poker network that spans across multiple states. Compete for real WSOP bracelets and rings in official online events from your own home.Frequent reload bonuses and lucrative monthly promotions.CHOOSE YOUR STATE:New Jersey »Nevada » In the winter, WSOP and GGPoker joined forces again for a hybrid online-live Main Event where players competed in tournaments online, then met for a live final table. The two winners of these met in a special heads-up match in Las Vegas. Normally by now, organization and marketing are in full flow. Online satellites are underway on official WSOP sites as well as partners internationally. Schedules are revealed, packages are offered and promotions are spread. However, nothing has yet been revealed for this year—understandable, given how no one knows how the next few months will unfold. That makes this promotion even more intriguing. Sweepstakes Package Details The winner of the sweepstakes promotion will win entry into the $10,000 buy-in 2021 WSOP Main Event. As noted, normally this is a multi-day tournament held live in the Rio; last year, it was mostly online. What it will be this year is unknown. The implication, however, is that Caesars wants to run this live in Las Vegas, given the other parts of the prize package. The winner and their guest will be flown to Las Vegas from anywhere in the continental United States. Once in the city, they will be treated to a dinner for two at a Celebrity Chef restaurant, a three night stay in a suite at Caesars Palace, a whisky and cigar night at the hotel’s Montecristo Cigar Bar, and $1,000 in spending money. The total prize package, including all the extra goodies, is worth $14,000. Prize Approximate Value (USD) $10,000 Seat to 2021 WSOP Main Event $10,000 3-night stay in a Suite at Caesars Palace $1,000 Round-trip airfare for two (from continental US) $1,100 $1,000 VISA Gift Card $1,000 Whisky and cigars at Montecristo Cigar Bar $400 Dinner for two at Celebrity Chef’s restaurant $500 Hotel Stay at the Rio, a Hint of the WSOP Finally Moving? Curiously, the stay is only for a three nights—which would normally not be long enough for a deep run of the WSOP Main Event. Last year, the tournament was spread over two weeks, with three Day 1s and two Day 2s then a Day 3, Day 4, and final table, with breaks gaps in-between. Also of note, the hotel stay is in Caesars Palace, not the Rio. Whether this suggests an anticipated location move or not remains to be seen. The Rio was sold back in 2019 though Caesars agreed to manage the property for two years. The 2020 event was scheduled to take place in the Rio, and the live Main event did go ahead in its convention center. However, no announcement has been made for the 2021 series—and with Caesars potentially coming to the end of its management contract, this could well be the first indication that WSOP plans to move it to another Caesars location in Las Vegas. How to Enter the WSOP Ultimate Poker Champion Sweepstakes Promo If you are a United States resident, just fill out this form. That’s it! You can read below for more details. The contest is open to anyone over 21 years of age, with the exception of employees and family of Caesars Interactive Entertainment, Inc or Caesars Entertainment Services, LLC. The offer is only valid in the continental United States and void where prohibited. Entries are open until midnight on April 30, 2021 and the winner will be randomly chosen on May 6, 2021 from all the entries received prior to the closing date. In the event that the winner does not meet eligibility requirements, up to 5 alternate draws will be made to choose a winner. If no eligible winner is selected after the maximum 5 alternate draws, the prize will remain unawarded. Prizes are non-transferable, and not subject to change except at the discretion of the contest Administrator. The Administrator reserves the right to substitute a prize of equal or greater value if the above prizes are not available for any reason, and winners are responsible for all taxes and fees which may be associated with receiving or using the prize. There is no cash equivalent for this prize. The dates for the prize will be set once the Main Event is scheduled, but the trip must be taken before December 31, 2021. This gives the organizers a wide window to schedule the WSOP 2021 Main Event—whatever form it takes.
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What to Do Versus a Big River Bet (3 Simple Tips)
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This article was written by blackrain79.com contributor Fran Ferlan. Playing the river optimally is what makes or breaks your winrate.  It’s the biggest money street and you often have to make a decision for your whole stack. The amount of money in the pot by the river often paralyzes players, because they are overly focused on the pot size, which affects their decision making process.  So what should you do versus a big river bet? Well, when you ask a broad question, you tend to get a broad answer, so here it is: it depends. There’s a lot of factors to consider here: your opponent type, previous action, board runout, pot odds, your relative hand strength, just to name a few. Not a huge help, so let’s try to break it down in this article. 1. Try to Bluff Catch Versus Loose and Aggressive Players Let’s start with the type of player we are up against. Most players will primarily bet for value when they fire off a big river bet, especially at the micros.  The only exception would be loose and aggressive players. This is true for both regulars and aggrofish. You can generally call wider against aggrofish than you would against LAG regulars. The looser and more aggressive the player, the wider you should call them down.  This is an advanced poker strategy that works extremely well in today's small stakes games. BlackRain79 discusses it in more detail in this video: So in practice, this means that sometimes you should call them down with hands you wouldn’t be comfortable calling with otherwise, like top pair weak kicker, second pair, two pair on a wet board and such.  It’s important to trust your judgment in these situations, otherwise you’re better off folding earlier if you suspect you’re going to get barrelled and pushed out of the pot.  However, just because someone is loose and aggressive, doesn’t mean they will have only bluffs in their range, especially on the river. The board runout is an important factor when deciding how wide you should call. Generally speaking, the drier the board, the wider you can bluff catch.  Why?  Because your opponent sees the same community cards you see, and if they bet huge on the river, they’re basically saying that the board doesn’t scare them and they don’t care what you are holding.  On the other hand, if the river bricks (i.e. a river card doesn’t change anything significantly, because it fails to complete any straight or flush draws, for example), your more observant opponents might put you on a busted draw and try to bluff you out of the pot.  They can also have a busted draw of their own, as decently winning LAGs know the power of semibluffing on earlier streets, and know a large majority of their opponents won’t have the heart to call down their triple barrel without a monster hand. In this situation, you should look for an opportunity to bluff catch with your top pair or second pair, for example. Bear in mind that this isn’t something you should try to do often, as these kinds of situations are more of an exception than the rule, but who doesn’t love a good hero call from time to time? If you’re able to pick off a huge pot with a mediocre hand, it can do wonders to your bottom line, as most players wouldn’t have the nerve to pull it off.  It will also make it more difficult to play against you, because you’ll show that you are able to call down in less than ideal circumstances, and won’t be pushed around.  Just a disclaimer:  Know that it’s a high-risk, high reward play, and should be attempted only in specific circumstances, against specific opponents, on specific boards and against specific previous action.  You should base it on sound information and tells you’ve picked up on, not just the feeling that this guy is bluffing, I’m gonna call him down with my Ace-high. Big River Bet Example Hand #1 Effective stack size: 100BB. You are dealt A♦8♦ in the BB. A LAG reg open-raises to 3x from the BU. SB folds, you call. Pot: 6.5BB. Flop: T♣7♠6♥ You check. Villain bets 3BB. You call. Pot: 12.5BB. Turn: 2♣ You check. Villain bets 6BB. You call. Pot: 24.5BB. River: A♠ You check. Villain bets 16BB. You: ??? You should call. This is a great spot to bluff catch based on our opponent type, previous action, and the board runout. Let’s break it down. A loose and aggressive reg open raises from the button. We assume their range is very wide here, probably close to 50% of all hands. We have a decent speculative hand. We can even opt to 3-bet light from time to time, but we decide to flat call. We flop a gutshot straight draw, and we expect the villain to fire off a c-bet with pretty much a 100% of their range, which he does. The turn doesn’t change much for us, except it puts a possible flush draw on the board. The villain double barrels, but since not much has changed for us from flop to turn, and are getting about 3:1 odds on a call, we decide to continue. The river doesn’t complete our gutshot, but we do end up improving to a top pair. Is it good enough for a call? Let’s look at it from the villain’s perspective.  We didn’t give him any reason to assume we are holding an Ace. In fact, we checked three times, so if they had to put us on a range, they would assume we have a Tx hand, a busted straight or a flush draw.  Conveniently, that’s a part of their perceived range as well. The river comes with a scare card, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tried to buy the pot there. Are we going to be good a hundred percent of the time? Of course not, but we don’t need to be. This is something that BlackRain79 talks about in Modern Small Stakes. They have a significant amount of bluffs in their range for our call to be +EV, considering their player type, their open-raising position, our passive lines, non-coordinated board and so on.  When we take all of that into consideration, we can infer that we can call profitably. As for the aggrofish, aka complete maniacs, you can widen your river calling ranges considerably. It is also a high risk, high reward play, but these players are the only ones that will have a significant amount of bluffs on the river.  Why?  Because their ranges are already extremely wide on previous streets, so it’s fair to assume they will get to the river with all kinds of busted draws, Ace-high hands, fourth pair etc. While their aggression can certainly be profitable in the short term, as even they can occasionally catch a monster hand, they will be the most significant long term losers.  You can’t outrun math. So when playing against them, you should be making more hero calls than you would usually be inclined.  Be aware that their maniacal ways are usually short-lived, so you should try to get them to donate their stacks to you before the next guy.  And you usually won’t have the luxury of waiting around for the monster hand to try and trap them.  So next time you find yourself facing a huge river bet against them, go with your gut, take a deep breath and call them down. Your winrate will thank you for it. Make $500+ Per Month in Low Stakes Poker Games With My Free Poker Cheat Sheet Are you having trouble consistently beating low stakes poker games online or live? Are you looking to make a consistent part time income playing these games?  That is why I wrote this free little 50 page poker cheat sheet to give you the exact strategies to start consistently making $500 (or more) per month in low stakes poker games right now. These are the exact poker strategies by the way that I used to create some of the highest winnings in online poker history at the lower limits, as a 10+ year poker pro. And I lay them all out for you step by step in this free guide. Enter your details below and I will send my free poker cheat sheet to your inbox right now. 2. Look for Possible Completed Draws As far as all the other player types are concerned, like fish who aren’t of the aggro persuasion (which is most of them) and TAGs, you should be very careful when calling big river bets. This is especially the case if they donk bet big into you. (A donk bet is a bet made against the previous streets’ aggressor).  Look for possible completed draws and ask yourself if their previous action makes sense that way. If the answer is yes, your overpair or top two pair probably isn’t good enough anymore.  Think of it this way: would you bet big out of position on the river against someone’s previous incessant aggression without a really strong hand? You probably wouldn’t. And neither would the majority of the player pool at the micro stakes.  Big River Bet Example Hand #2 Effective stack size: 100BB. You are dealt A♠Q♠ on the BU. You open-raise to 3x. SB folds, a loose passive fish calls in the BB. Pot: 6.5BB Flop: A♦3♦Q♥ Fish checks. You bet 5BB. Fish calls. Pot: 16.5BB Turn: 8♣ Fish checks. You bet 16.5BB. Fish calls. Pot: 49.5 River: J♦ Fish bets 40BB. You: ??? You should fold. Let’s break down the action street by street. There’s not much to say about preflop. We’re dealt a great hand on the button, and we can assume the recreational player will call us down pretty wide in the big blind. We flop top two pair and should start building the pot as soon as possible. We expect to get called by a bunch of Ax hands, gutshot straight draws, flush draws, you name it. The turn doesn’t change much, but it does add a couple of gutshot draws if our opponent called the flop with hands like JT, J9, or T9, for example.  We’re still miles ahead of villain’s range, so we decide to charge them a premium for their drawing hands. We can even consider overbettting, but we go for a pot sized bet. And we get one of the worst river cards possible. The fish fires off a huge donk bet. There is nothing left for us to do but bemoan our luck and fold begrudgingly.  The Jack on the river completes a number of straight draws and a flush draw. If we go back to preflop, we should expect this particular opponent to have practically all suited junk in their range.  Fish love chasing draws, and they love playing suited junk. Nevermind the fact that the chances of flopping a flush are only 0.8%. Now, we could argue that it’s a fish, they don’t know what they’re doing, they could be bluffing. Or they could have any number of two pair hands we’re ahead of. Fair enough. But if they did have a two pair hand, for example, wouldn’t they go for a check-call option, considering such a scary board?  Even fish can see three diamonds on a board. And yes, they could be bluffing, but there is nothing in their previous history that would suggest that. You should always be on the lookout for disrupting patterns when playing poker.  If an otherwise weak and timid opponent suddenly starts blasting off big bets, they didn’t just randomly decide to mix it up a little. They are politely letting you know they have the nuts. As a rule of thumb in poker in general, calling should be the last option you consider. As the old adage goes, if your hand is good enough for a call, it’s good enough…
วันที่ 7
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รีสตาร์ทครั้งที่สามหลังจากอาการกำเริบอย่างรุนแรง 2 ครั้งในปีนี้ เพื่อน 3 วันแรกสุดยอดมากอีกครั้ง ไม่มากจนฉันอยากเล่นอันที่จริงฉันไม่อยากเล่นเลยมันเป็นความรู้สึกของความอับอายความผิดความสิ้นหวังและความผิดหวังซึ่งส่งผลให้เกิดความวิตกกังวลเพิ่มขึ้นอารมณ์หดหู่ - ว่างเปล่าจริงๆมองเข้าไปในอวกาศ ไม่มีแม้แต่ปัจจุบัน - แน่นอนว่าการนอนหลับที่แย่มากการคิดการคิดการคิด โชคดีที่ฉันเป็นคนมีเหตุผลและคิดบวกและฉันตระหนักดีว่ากระจกบังลมหน้าสำคัญกว่ากระจกตรวจสอบและยิ่งมองไปข้างหน้าได้เร็วเท่าไหร่ก็ยิ่งดี 4 วันที่ผ่านมาเป็นไปด้วยดี ฉันกำลังวิ่งยกน้ำหนักกินดีและทำงาน หลังจากนั้นฉันก็นอนหลับสบายและมีความคิดเชิงบวกเกี่ยวกับอนาคตที่จะเกิดขึ้น ฉันจะใช้เวลา 500 วันในการชำระเงินกู้ส่วนบุคคลและคืนเงินออมให้สูงสุด (กรกฎาคม 2018) ฉันได้อ่านเรื่องราวมากมายที่นี่และจะอ่านต่อทุกวัน แต่ฉันจะอัปเดตความคืบหน้าทุกสัปดาห์เท่านั้น ขอให้พี่น้องทุกคนออกเดินทางจากนี้ตลอดไป มีวินัยเข้มแข็ง ส่งโดย / u / needtochangemyways21 [comments]
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ตำนานโป๊กเกอร์ Daniel Negreanu และ Phil Hellmuth จะเล่นเกมเดิมพันสูงแบบ Heads-Up
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การแข่งขันแบบตัวต่อตัวของ Daniel Negreanu กับ Doug Polk สิ้นสุดลงแล้ว แต่เขาก็มีการต่อสู้ที่มีชื่อเสียงระดับสูงเป็นครั้งที่สอง Negreanu ถูกกำหนดให้ต่อสู้กับ Phil Hellmuth ผู้ชนะสร้อยข้อมือ World Series Poker 15 ครั้งใน "High Stakes Duel" ของ PokerGO ตามทวีตจาก Hellmuth “ ดูเหมือนว่าพวกเขาจะพาฉันไปหา Daniel Negreanu @RealKidPoker ผู้ยิ่งใหญ่คนที่เรียนกับโค้ชที่ฉันเคารพมาหลายเดือนแล้ว” Hellmuth ทวีตเมื่อบ่ายวันเสาร์ “ ช่างมันเถอะ มันจะเป็นความท้าทายที่ยิ่งใหญ่สำหรับฉัน "แม้จะมีคำพูดบางอย่างในทวีตเชื้อเพลิงสำหรับการต่อสู้เริ่มต้นขึ้นหลังจากที่ Hellmuth วิพากษ์วิจารณ์การเล่นของ Negreanu กับ Polk ในระหว่างการให้สัมภาษณ์ใน PokerGO “ ฉันผิดหวังกับวิธีการเล่นของแดเนียล” เฮลมุ ธ กล่าว “ แต่ฉันรู้จักโค้ชของเขา โค้ชของเขายอดเยี่ยมมาก ทุกสิ่งที่ฉันได้พูดคุยกับโค้ชของเขา ... คุณเห็นไหมฉันคุยกับคนเหล่านี้สองสามชั่วโมงและฉันชอบวิธีที่พวกเขาคิดว่าไม่มีขีด จำกัด [hold’em]. "เขายอมรับว่าเขาเดิมพันกับ Negreanu เพื่อชนะ แต่คิดว่าเขาควรจะตอบโต้ Polk ด้วยกลยุทธ์ที่แตกต่างออกไป “ ฉันเดิมพันด้วยพรสวรรค์ของแดเนียล” เฮลมัทกล่าว “ ฉันคิดว่าถ้าแดเนียลจะลองเล่น Doug เล่น GTO แบบเพียว ๆ [game theory optimal] หรือ GTO ระดับถัดไปฉันคิดว่า Doug มีไฟมากดังนั้น Daniel จึงต้องต่อสู้กับไฟด้วยไฟ และฉันคิดว่าแดเนียลน่าจะสู้กับแดเนียลได้ ” Negreanu ท้าต่อสาธารณชนให้ Hellmuth แข่งขันแบบตัวต่อตัวไม่นานหลังจากการสัมภาษณ์ออกมา โปรชาวแคนาดากล่าวว่าเขาจะเล่นเดิมพันใด ๆ และเห็นได้ชัดว่ารูปแบบใด ๆ โย่ @phil_hellmuth คุณบอกว่าคุณดู "ศูนย์" ของรายการ แต่ดูเหมือนว่าคุณจะมีความคิดเห็นที่ชัดเจนเกี่ยวกับการเล่น ฉันจะเล่นเกมล่วงหน้าแบบสดออนไลน์ในการเดิมพันใด ๆ ที่คุณรู้สึกสบายใจในหลาย ๆ มือเท่าที่คุณต้องการ ต้องการเล่นคนใหญ่? https://t.co/ac9KVpwuaO— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) 10 กุมภาพันธ์ 2021 ทวีตดูเหมือนจะแนะนำจำนวนมือในรูปแบบเกมเงินสด แต่รูปแบบของ "High Stakes Duel" จะต้องจัดโครงสร้างเป็น การดำรงชีวิต. รูปแบบการเล่นแบบ Head-up-and-go ค่อนข้างแตกต่างจากที่ Negreanu ใช้เวลาเล่นหลายเดือน แต่ดูเหมือนว่าทั้งสองจะเล่นได้อยู่ดี ในการให้สัมภาษณ์กับ Las Vegas Review-Journal Negreanu แสดงความสงสัยว่าการแข่งขันกับ Hellmuth จะเกิดขึ้นจริง "ฉันคิดว่ามันเป็นไก่ที่จะซื่อสัตย์กับคุณ" Negreanu กล่าว “ ฉันคิดว่าเขากลัว ฉันคิดว่าเขารู้ว่าเขาจะดูแย่ "Hellmuth เล่นรูปแบบนี้เมื่อปีที่แล้วเอาชนะ Antonio Esfandiari ได้สามเกมติดต่อกันโดยมีรายได้ 400,000 เหรียญในกระบวนการนี้ .
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หน้าแรกเกม Heroes 888 Poker Ambassadors ยิงนัดเดียวเพื่อต่อสู้
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8 888 Poker กำลังให้ภาพแก่ผู้เล่นของพวกเขาในขณะที่เอาชนะทูตเช่น Vivian Saliba, Sophia Lovegren และ Dominic Nikshe ไม่ว่าจะดูชื่อใหญ่ ๆ ในซีรีส์โป๊กเกอร์ไม่ว่าจะเป็น Poker After Dark หรือกิจกรรมอื่น ๆ ที่เกี่ยวข้องกับโป๊กเกอร์ผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์ที่น่าสนใจทั่วโลกอาจเคยคิดอย่างน้อยหนึ่งครั้ง - "ฉันชอบทดสอบตัวเองและต่อสู้กับผู้แสวงหา" "หากสิ่งนี้ดังก้องและดังในบ้านโปรดทราบว่า 888 Poker กำลังเปิดโอกาสให้ฮีโร่ทุกคนในบ้านและผู้เล่นในห้องโป๊กเกอร์ทั่วไปมีโอกาสทำเช่นนั้น - การต่อสู้กับผู้แสวงหา ไม่ว่าจะเป็นวิธีที่ง่ายกว่าที่เคยทำมาก่อนก็ไม่จำเป็นต้องไปที่คอลเลกชันของการแข่งขันดาวเทียมเพื่อรับโอกาสนี้ คุณต้องโน้มน้าวทีมโป๊กเกอร์ 888 ว่าทำไมคุณจึงควรต่อต้านทูตโป๊กเกอร์ 888 ผู้เล่นทั้งสามจะได้รับเลือกให้อยู่ใน Six Max Sit and Go แบบพิเศษและต่อสู้กับ Dominic Nische, Sophia Lovegren และ Vivian Saliba ผู้ชนะจะเดินออกไปพร้อมกับรางวัลที่หนึ่ง 1,400 และอันดับที่สองจะเพิ่ม $ 600 ให้กับแบ๊งค์ของพวกเขา สำหรับผู้ที่ต้องการทดสอบทักษะการเล่นโป๊กเกอร์เกี่ยวกับไอดอลโป๊กเกอร์ให้ไปที่หน้า 888 Poker Facebook และแสดงความคิดเห็น ต้องส่งผลงานเวลา 23.00 น. GMT หลังวันที่ 16 กุมภาพันธ์เพื่อพิจารณา ผู้เล่นที่เลือกทั้งหมดจะได้รับแจ้งภายในสามวันและผู้ชนะจะมีเวลาอีก 72 ชั่วโมงในการยืนยันตำแหน่งของพวกเขาที่โต๊ะ ทัวร์นาเมนต์นี้ให้ผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์อีกรายการหนึ่งที่สามารถลบออกจากรายการถังโป๊กเกอร์ได้นั่นคือการเล่นรายการถ่ายทอดสด ทัวร์นาเมนต์จะถ่ายทอดสดในวันที่ 22 กุมภาพันธ์กับนักข่าวไซด์ไลน์ของ World Series of Poker และ Cara Scott ซึ่งเป็นทูตโป๊กเกอร์ 8888 คนปัจจุบัน พบกับผู้แสวงหาโป๊กเกอร์ 888 ผู้เล่นที่เลือกจะเผชิญหน้ากับขอบในขณะที่ผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์ 888 คนจะเผชิญหน้ากับทั้งสามคนของ Vivian Saliba, Sophia Lovegren และ Dominic Nietzsche หลังจากได้รับรางวัลเกือบ 20 ล้านล้านในบรรดามืออาชีพทั้งสามผู้เล่นที่เลือกจะต้องหยุดทั้งหมดเพื่อพิสูจน์ว่าจะว่ายน้ำกับฉลามได้อย่างไร กำไล 4 WSOP ของ Dominic Niche ชื่อ World Poker Tour และรายได้มากกว่า 18 18 ล้านจากการแข่งขันในเยอรมันล้วนเป็นสิ่งที่จะเกิดขึ้นในห้องไพ่ท้องถิ่นหรือพายุเกมในบ้าน ไม่มีความสามารถที่แน่นอนที่จะดึงออกมาได้ แต่การวิ่งบลัฟที่ถูกต้องหรือการสร้างฮีโร่ที่ดีที่สุดอาจเป็นทุกสิ่งที่โป๊กเกอร์ไททันตัวนี้ต้องจัดการ Vivian Saliba เกิดในบราซิล Saliba ตัดเสื้อผ้าของเธอที่ถนน PLO เป็นหลัก แต่เธอไม่ได้ไปหาคนแปลกหน้าหรือไม่ จำกัด เวลาและชื่อ Vivisaliba มักจะพบได้ในสตรีมบน Twitch การได้รับเงินสด WSOP 14 รางวัลและรางวัลมากกว่าडॉलर 500 รางวัลการเข้าถึงผู้สนับสนุนเหล่านี้จะง่ายกว่าการหลีกเลี่ยงเอซบนฟล็อปในขณะที่รักษา Pok की Kings โซเฟียเลิฟเกรนนั่งอยู่ที่โต๊ะที่สามและเป็นทูตโป๊กเกอร์ 888 คนสุดท้าย โซเฟียเลิฟเกรน หนึ่งในไฮไลท์ของอาชีพที่ประสบความสำเร็จของเธอคืออันดับที่ 12 ใน 201S WSOP 500 150,000 No Limit Hold Millionaire Maker $ 75,000 ด้วยจำนวนผู้เข้าแข่งขันมากกว่า 1,000,000 รายการในการแข่งขันครั้งนั้น Lovegren ได้พบกับความกล้าหาญและความสงบสุขในการรอสถานที่ของเขาและถูกลงโทษเพราะต้องการล้มเจ้า ไม่มีอะไรที่จะนำรางวัลต่อหน้าต่อตาคุณเพื่อรับรางวัลในโอกาสทองของกองนี้คืออะไรผู้ชนะเกม Ass Ambassadors Home จะบันทึกตัวเลขสี่ตัวที่ 4,400 พร้อมกับแบนเนอร์ชูแบงค์ 600 นอกจากนี้โปรดทราบว่าผู้เล่นควรพิจารณาว่าพวกเขาสามารถมีเหตุผลได้หลายประการ - แต่มีข้อ จำกัด ในการส่งหนึ่งครั้งต่อผู้เล่น
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